kyle bass: "se está invirtiendo en argentina" ...( jijijijijijijijiji ) ah!, los motivos nos interesan tanto como sus opiniones

Sobre las alternativas de inversión de Kyle "cincomilpalosverdes" Bass , leemos en el tan estimado y estimable FT: 

New frontiers

Risky markets like Argentina draw investors

Nuevas Fronteras
Mercados de riesgo como Argentina atraen inversores

Kyle Bass , gerente de fondos de cobertura que hizo una fortuna apostando contra los bonos griegos y subprime EE.UU. , dejó caer una bomba en una conferencia en septiembre.

Mr Bass ni se inmuta por la reputación del país , y predijo con confianza que los políticos pro-empresariales harían cargo después de las elecciones presidenciales en 2015 .

"Los problemas de Argentina se pueden fijar en dos años ", argumentó . "Ahora es el momento de empezar a invertir . "

Nota completa

Kyle Bass, a hedge fund manager who made a fortune betting against Greek bonds and US subprime, dropped a bombshell at a conference in September.

He is investing in Argentina, Latin America’s perennial problem child and a nemesis of hedge funds.

Mr Bass is unfazed by the country’s reputation, and confidently predicted that pro-business politicians would take over after presidential elections in 2015. “Argentina’s problems can be fixed in two years,” he argued. “Now is the time to start investing.”

The US hedge fund manager is not the only one intrigued by the investment opportunities of Argentina. The Merval stock market index has rallied almost 50 per cent in US dollar terms this year, as a smattering of intrepid fund managers have put money into the Argentine bourse.

Indeed, Argentina is part of a broader phenomenon. While many emerging markets have disappointed investors in recent years, so-called “frontier markets” have on the whole performed well. Even the US Federal Reserve’s plans to scale back its monetary stimulus – which triggered turmoil across the developing world last summer – only dented this year’s returns.

The MSCI Frontier Markets index has risen more than 17 per cent this year, compared with the 2.9 per cent loss of the bigger MSCI Emerging Markets gauge.

Ironically, frontier markets’ lack of size, depth and maturity is a major reason behind their resilience.

Low liquidity means positions are often small and difficult to sell, so many fund managers focus on trimming bigger holdings in mainstream markets in times of stress, says David Grayson, chief executive of Auerbach Grayson, a brokerage. “Unless you’re liquidating your entire portfolio you tend to leave your frontier positions.”

Sven Richter, head of frontier markets at Renaissance Asset Managers, says the gains are also a result of past losses being clawed back. While frontier markets have performed well over the past year, they remain almost 50 per cent below their pre-credit crunch peak. Emerging markets are down less than a fifth.

But frontier market bonds – which unlike equities have performed well since the financial crisis – have also proved unexpectedly sturdy in the face of the Fed’s plans to “taper” its quantitative easing programme.

Despite the summer squall, JPMorgan’s Nexgem index of frontier bonds has returned 4.6 per cent this year. In contrast investors have lost 5.4 per cent on the dollar bonds of mainstream emerging markets, and 5.5 per cent in local currency debt.

Frontier and emerging bond markets are converging. The average spread, or difference, between JPMorgan’s flagship EMBI index of mainstream emerging markets and a frontier bond gauge constructed by Exotix, a brokerage, recently went below 100 basis points for the first time.

“You would think that talk of Fed tapering and the flight from risk would hit frontier markets, but they have kept on tightening,” says Gabriel Sterne, an economist at Exotix.

The lack of liquidity has been an even bigger factor in insulating frontier debts markets. Some bonds are almost impossible to shift even with a deep discount, so investors have no choice but to stick to their positions.

Benoit Anne, head of EM strategy at Société Générale, argues that it was “more luck than smarts” that got frontier markets through the testing summer, but predicts that the future looks bright. “They managed to get through the storm and now things are looking up,” he says.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e2a145e6-5204-11e3-adfa-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=intl